The Spring 2010 CMHC Mortgage and Housing Report for the Greater Toronto Area states that MLS housing sales will reach a record high over the course of the year. Much of this growth will be supported by low mortgage rates in Toronto. This said, the market will decline towards the latter part of the year. New home sales will show a significant increase. An improving corporate environment will help push the unemployment rate down thus supporting the demand for home ownership. The resale market in the GTA will show record level activity. This growth however, is set to decline in the later part of the year, partly due to a possible increase in Toronto mortgage rates. According to the report, housing prices may consequently decline however such declines will be minimal and short lived. Prices can be expected to remain fairly flat over the next few years to allow income levels to catch up. Purchases for new semi detached homes may moderate and the construction industries in Toronto will rely more on high rise development.
High rise condo starts in Toronto will rise by close to 30 percent over the next year with a strong likelihood for more gains. Like the high rise expansion over 2010, starts for detached homes will have a 60 % increase in 2010 matched, however for detached homes in Toronto and the area, there is a more significant possibility for growth moderation in 2011. This said, and thanks in part to relatively low mortgage rates, single detached homes will remain limited and this fact will continue to push the prices for these homes up. Row homes which are conducive to infill development and more affordable than singles will take on the greatest share of low rise housing.
With respect to employment, rates should increase by 1.5 percent in 2010 and wages are expected to grow by 2.5 percent. The nature and timing for the latest downturn in Toronto has allowed for a quick recovery for the job market. As the economy has begun to recover, businesses are in a much stronger position to re hire. Along these lines, good employment opportunities in the Greater Toronto Area will attract a higher level of immigration. This boost in population, when combined with low mortgage rates, will provide support for both home ownership and rental demand. At the time of writing, the prime mortgage rate is 0.25 percent. With the overnight bank rate expected to increase, mortgage rates have begun to rise. Rates could increase quickly if the economy recovers at a faster pace. This said, rate increases could be lessened if the recovery is modest.